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The Insight Gap

On paper, she's one of your healthiest members. Nobody has seen her in years.

A member with no recent visits sorts to the bottom of every list. Missing data doesn't look like a problem. It looks like good health.

7 min readPayors · ACOs

On paper, she's one of your healthiest members. No chronic conditions. No hospital stays. Hardly any claims.

In reality, she hasn't seen a doctor in years.

Her diabetes is still there. So is the blood pressure that was creeping up at her last visit. They just aren't in this year's record, because nobody has seen her this year to write them down.

So she sorts to the bottom of every list. Care management prioritizes members who look sicker. The outreach that could have brought her in goes to someone else. Her record describes a healthy person, and the plan treats her like one.

Unengaged members are the hardest part of the Insight Gap to see, because missing data doesn't look like a problem. It looks like good health.

Why do unengaged members look healthy in the data?

Almost everything a plan knows about a member arrives as a by-product of care. A visit produces a claim. A claim carries diagnoses. A prescription fill shows up in pharmacy data. A lab order produces a result. Each of these is a small signal that something is going on, and the tools that sort members by need are built out of those signals.

Take the visits away and the signals stop. Chronic conditions have to be documented again each calendar year to count, so a diagnosis recorded a while ago quietly falls out of this year's picture. The member's risk score drifts down. Her utilization looks low. Nothing about her triggers a flag, because flags are built to fire on things that happened, and for her, nothing did.

None of this is a bug in anyone's model. The model is doing what it was asked to do: rank members by what the record says. The trouble is that the record can only say what someone wrote down, and for this member, nobody has been in a position to write anything down for a long time.

A member with no recent visits isn't low-risk. She's unknown, and unknown should move her up the list, not down.

What does it cost the member and the care team?

Picture a composite care manager. Call her Renee. She starts Monday with a work list sorted by risk. The top of it is full of members she knows: recent discharges, members with several conditions and a stack of recent claims, people whose names she recognizes from last month. That is where her week goes, and for good reason. Those members need her.

The member in this story is far down the same list, below people who are genuinely doing well. Renee will never reach her, and no one will ask why, because nothing on the screen suggests she should. The list looks complete. It just isn't describing the person.

The costs show up later and somewhere else:

  • Conditions that were being managed go unmanaged. Blood pressure that was creeping up goes unchecked. A diabetes plan that worked at the last visit hasn't been revisited since.
  • Preventive care slips quietly. Screenings and checkups that usually happen through routine visits don't happen, because the routine visits don't happen.
  • The first new data point can be an emergency. When an unengaged member finally reappears in the record, it may be through an emergency department visit or a hospital stay, an abrupt and costly way to re-enter care.
  • The resources match the wrong picture. When chronic conditions go undocumented, the population looks healthier than it is, and the resources available for care management and outreach shrink with it. That is the argument in why risk adjustment documentation is the care plan.

There is a cost to the team, too. When the member finally surfaces in crisis, the care manager inherits a situation that could have been a phone call months earlier. It is the same pattern described in how late data delays the high-risk cohort, with one difference: there, the data is late. Here, it never arrives at all.

Why the usual prioritization misses them

Most prioritization asks a reasonable question: who looks sickest right now? For members who are in care, that works. For members who have fallen out of care, it asks the wrong question, because their sickness is exactly what the data has stopped recording.

A better question sits alongside it: how much do we actually know about this member, and how recently did we learn it? A member with a long, recent record and low risk is probably doing well. A member with almost no recent record and low risk is a different case entirely. Those two members look identical in a ranked list. They shouldn't.

This is the same trap as working a care gap list from the easy end. The list rewards what is visible. Members who are hard to see stay at the bottom, and it isn't anyone's fault. The screen gave the team no reason to look there.

How can a plan find the members its data can't see?

Start with absence. Instead of only ranking members by what the record says, look for members whose record has gone quiet. Then look back at what was true the last time someone saw them.

  1. Find the silencePull the members on the roster who have had no visits, no claims, and no fills this year. Make sure they are still your members first, so the team isn't chasing people who left.
  2. Look backFor each of them, find the last time anyone saw them and what was documented then: the chronic conditions, the readings that were heading the wrong way, the follow-ups that were planned.
  3. Re-sortTreat a quiet record with a history of chronic conditions as a reason to call, not a reason to wait. Move those members up the list, alongside the ones who already look sick.
  4. Bring them inThe goal of the outreach is a visit, not a check mark. A visit is where the conditions get looked at again, and where the record starts describing the real person.

Nothing here requires a new data source. The history is often already in the claims and the medical record. What changes is the order of the work: the team stops reading silence as health.

The question for every plan this fall

Who on your roster hasn't been seen this year, and what was true the last time someone saw them?

If the answer takes days of pulls and spreadsheets, the members on that list wait that much longer. The members most at risk are often the ones with the least information, and the year is short. Finding them is not a data problem. It's a question of whether anyone thought to ask.

Part of the answer starts with the record itself. ElevateCare 360's Risk Module surfaces conditions that are likely present but not yet documented this year, drawing on claims history, medications, lab results, and prior documentation, so they can be evaluated with the patient at the next visit.

Frequently asked questions

What are unengaged members?
Unengaged members are people enrolled in a plan or attributed to an organization who have had little or no contact with care for a long stretch: no recent visits, few claims, and nothing new in the record. Some have chronic conditions that simply haven't been seen or documented recently.
Why do unengaged members get low risk scores?
Risk scores, and many prioritization tools, are built from what the record currently shows. Chronic conditions have to be documented again each year to count, so when a member stops coming in, those conditions fall out of the picture and the member appears healthier than they are.
Isn't a member with no claims usually healthy?
Sometimes. The difference is history. A member with a recent, full record and low risk is likely doing well. A member whose record has gone quiet after earlier chronic conditions is unknown, and unknown deserves a call rather than the bottom of the list.
Where should a care team start?
Check the roster first, so the list contains only current members. Then find those with no recent visits, claims, or fills, look at what was documented the last time they were seen, and move the ones with a history of chronic conditions up the outreach list.

See what this looks like on your population.

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